The UK government is experimenting with a fresh approach on Brexit, but this isn't equivalent to a change in direction. The modification is primarily tonal.
In the past, the Labour leadership portrayed Britain's detachment from Europe as a fixed element of the political landscape, difficult to manage maybe, but ultimately unavoidable. Now, they are prepared to admit it as a serious problem.
Addressing attendees at a regional investment conference recently, the finance minister included Brexit together with the pandemic and austerity as causes of persistent economic lethargy. She reiterated this viewpoint at an IMF gathering in Washington, noting that the country's productivity challenge has been compounded by the manner in which the UK left the European Union.
This was a precisely formulated statement, attributing harm not to the departure decision but to its implementation; faulting the officials who handled it, not the public who supported it. This differentiation is essential when the budget is unveiled soon. The goal is to assign some fiscal difficulties to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without appearing to dismiss the hopes of leave voters.
Among evidence-focused observers, the economic argument is largely settled. An independent fiscal watchdog calculates that Britain's long-term productivity is four percent reduced than it would have been with ongoing European partnership.
In addition to the costs of trade friction, there has been a ongoing drop in corporate spending caused by political instability and unclear rules. Additionally the opportunity cost of government energy being diverted toward a task for which little planning had been made, since supporters had thoroughly evaluated the real-world requirements of making it happen.
With evidence being clear, officials find it hard to maintain political neutrality. The central bank chief told last week's IMF meeting that he holds no position on EU exit before adding that its impact on growth will be adverse for the foreseeable future.
He forecast a slight positive adjustment eventually, which provides scant relief to a chancellor who must address a major funding gap immediately. Tax increases are planned, and the chancellor wants the public to understand that leaving the EU is a partial cause.
The statement is worth making because it is accurate. That doesn't guarantee electoral advantage from saying it. The same reality was evident when the administration delivered its earlier fiscal plan and during the general election campaign, which the party fought while avoiding the certainty of tax increases.
At this stage, with the administration being established but unpopular, explaining economic hardship sounds like justifying failure to numerous constituents. There might be more advantage in faulting the Tories for everything if they were the only alternative and a serious challenger. The classic incumbent strategy in a two-party system is to assert responsibility for fixing the previous administration's mess and caution voters. The emergence of Reform UK makes things harder.
Policy differences between the main opponents are minimal, but the electorate observe interpersonal conflict more than ideological alignment. Supporters of the Reform leader due to lost faith in the system—particularly on immigration control—do not view Reform and the Tories as similar entities. One party has a history of permitting entry, while the other does not—a difference Farage will consistently highlight.
The Reform leader is reluctant to discuss Brexit, partly because it is a achievement jointly owned with Tories and also because there are few benefits to showcase. When pressed, he may contend that the goal was undermined by flawed implementation, but even that explanation acknowledges disappointment. Easier to redirect conversation.
This clarifies why Labour feels more confident raising the issue. The prime minister's recent party conference speech marked a turning point. Earlier, he had discussed UK-EU relations in bureaucratic language, focusing on a relationship reset that addressed non-controversial trade barriers like border inspections while steering clear of the sensitive topics at the core of the Brexit aftermath.
In his speech, Starmer stopped short of old remainer rhetoric, but he suggested familiarity with previous assertions. He referenced "Brexit lies on the side of that bus"—referring to leave campaign pledges about NHS funding—in the context of "dubious solutions" promoted by politicians whose easy fixes worsen the nation's problems.
Leaving Europe was compared to Covid as traumas faced by ordinary people in recent years. Comparing Brexit to a disease indicates a tougher tone, even if the economic measures currently under discussion in EU headquarters remain unchanged.
The aim is to link the Reform leader to a well-known example of political mis-selling, suggesting he cannot be trusted; that he capitalizes on frustration and creates conflict but cannot manage effectively.
Recent suspensions of four Kent councillors from Reform's local government team reinforces that message. Leaked footage of a online meeting revealed internal disputes and recrimination, demonstrating the challenges amateurs face when providing community resources on limited budgets—much harder than campaigning about cutting waste or managing borders.
This line of attack is effective for the government, but it depends on the government's service delivery being sufficiently strong that electing Reform seems a risky gamble. Additionally, this is a strategy for a future campaign that may not occur until the end of the decade. If Starmer and Reeves wish to appear as alternatives to populism, they must show meanwhile with a clear, constructive program of their own.
There are limits to what can be achieved with a rhetorical shift, and time is short. How much easier to argue now that EU exit is harmful and his promoter untrustworthy if they had stated this before. What additional choices might they have? Do they merit praise for admitting it now when other excuses have failed? Certainly. But the problem of reaching the obvious conclusion via the longest path is that observers wonder the delay. Starting from the truth is faster.
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