From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.